Just to get it on the record, you understand. As of August 13th, here are my picks……

NFC West

1. Seattle–I really think they are kind of lame, and Shaun Alexander hasn’t been the same since he broke his foot two years ago. But who can beat them out?

2. Arizona–This is the team with the biggest “curse” in the NFL. No matter what they do, what players they get, who they get to coach, it always falls apart. This team should be a playoff team, except they are the Cardinals. Whisenhunt brings a winning pedigree from Pittsburgh, and I like him, but can he get this team to break through the tremendous barrier that stands between them and success? I don’t think so.

3. San Francisco–Their defense is not good enough to keep the worst offense in the league from dragging them down to defeat. Mike Martz is a successful offensive coordinator, but who is he gonna play at quarterback? Alex Smith has been a flop, which shouldn’t be a surprise since he came out of a gimmick system that was centered around the quarterback option. When will they learn? I do like Frank Gore, though, and he should be able to help them win about six or seven games.

4. St. Louis–This team is on a gradual downhill slide, and it might hit rock bottom this year. The greatest show on turf is long gone, as are Steven Jackson’s and Mark Bulger’s best years.

NFC North

1. Minnesota–The only thing that could keep them from winning this division is the same thing that kept them from winning it last year–quarterback play. Right now they just have to load up against Peterson and make Tavaris Jackson beat them with his arm. I’m kind of rooting for him.

2. Chicago–They still don’t have a good quarterback, but I think they will rebound enough this year to edge out a Favre-less Packers team.

3. Green Bay–The only way this situation makes any sense is that Green Bay (basically Mike McCarthy) had moved on mentally and emotionally from the retired Favre, and just couldn’t bring himself to throw the ship in reverse again. Because in no universe that I’m aware of is Aaron Rodgers any kind of player compared to Favre. For Pete’s sake, Favre got knocked out of a game last year, one of the 275 straight which he has started, and Aaron Rodgers got hurt before the game was out with an injury that ended his season. When he gets hurt, and he will, they have two rookies backing him up. Throw in the fact that they were really a 10-6 team that managed to go 13-3 somehow, and that Ryan Grant unexpectedly burst on the scene by rushing through gaping holes, much of which was do to Favre’s threat and his play action, and you have a recipe for an extremely huge letdown in Wisconsin this season. And it won’t be Rodgers’ fault.

4. Detroit–They’re Detroit.

NFC South

1. New Orleans–I think this is the year when they put it all together. They got off to a horrible start last year, but came back strong enough to get back in the playoff hunt. Brees is awesome, and I think they could be a Super Bowl contender if they can keep McAllister healthy. I think adding Jeremy Shockey helps Brees with another weapon that opens up the field more for Colston and Bush.

2. Carolina–I loved the way they played when they went to the Super Bowl, but they haven’t been consistent enough since then to make a run. I think they have another run in them before their window closes. Delhomme’s elbow will be a big key, as well as Steve Smith being focused and on the field.

3. Tampa Bay–They are up and down. Always the same boring team with the same over cerebral Jon Gruden passing game. (How can he be an offensive genius if he can’t find a way to get someone open more than four yards downfield?) I like Garcia. He’s got guts. The Bucs will bring the lumber and hit you in the mouth. They just have so few weapons and such a small margin for error that they can win 10 or lose 12.

4. Atlanta–There are a lot of veterans on this team with a lot of pride. If not for them the Falcons would have been winless last year.

NFC East

1. Dallas–I hate to pick them, because I think they are overrated. But they seem to have enough weapons to carry them all the way. But T.O.’s a year older and Marion Barber will be the primary back for the first time. Will Wade Phillips’ laid back style be successful when it is not in the immediate direct contrast to Parcells’ style? Iffy pick here.

2. Philadelphia–Last year they were the best team to not make the playoffs. McNabb was still unsure on a bad leg and Brian Westbrook was the whole show. Plus Andy Reid was coaching through a lot of personal issues. This year should be a redemption for the Eagles. I wanted to pick them to win the division, but they are getting a little old, and I’m afraid of it catching up with them.

3. New York–They put it all together for sure last year in the playoffs. But Eli was on a hot streak, and the Patriots were flattening out. When they are on their game they are as solid a team as there is in the league. But Strahan is gone, Coughlin isn’t, and they have to settle on a running back. My guess is that there will be a letdown in the Big Apple this year.

4. Washington–They are a good team–too good to picked for last place. But they aren’t exceptional, and when they have a bad game they have no room for mistakes. This is just a tough division.

NFC Power Rankings

1. Dallas

2. Philadelphia

3. New Orleans

4. Minnesota

5. New York

6. Carolina

7. Seattle

8. Washington

9. Tampa Bay

10. Chicago

11. Arizona

12. Green Bay

13. San Francisco

14. Detroit

15. St. Louis

16. Atlanta